Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Georgia, Oct 16, 2026
At the rally on Oct 16, 2026, Donald Trump said 35 of the 57 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
57 words · 35 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 85%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 72%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 72%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 72%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 69%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 65%n=254 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 65%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 64%n=137 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 63%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 59%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 25+ times | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 57%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 57%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 56%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 55%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 53%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| University | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 48%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 14+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 48%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Pee-wee / Peewee | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 45%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Ossoff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Star | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Marjorie | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Yes | 42%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 42%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 36%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 35%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Clay | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 25%n=281 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 59%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 6+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Laken Riley Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peach / Pecan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hurricane | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Science | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 43%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account / TrumpRX | No | 41%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 37%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 33%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 32%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 31%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 21%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 18%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 18%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 16%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 14%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 10%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 8%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 5%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=531 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-16:rally-georgia · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-16:rally-georgia · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP