Will Donald Trump say “America First”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “America First” at 36 of 111 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (32%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=111, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 6 times.

37%from settlement history only · n=111Next: Rally, Oct 23, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

America First

Probability
37% · n=111
Settled
36/111 (32%)
Latest transcripts
said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker5:00In transcript

…is going to be a continuation of the US Senate and elect America first Republicans all up and down the line. We have a lot…

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker4:33In transcript

…great. And we're going to elect a Republican House, a Republican Senate, America First Patriots up and down the line. We have them all standing…

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Oct 22, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Oct 21, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Oct 20, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Oct 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 13, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo–
Oct 13, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Oct 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 5, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 3, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Oct 2, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Sep 17, 2026America FirstKalshiYes–
Sep 16, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Sep 6, 2026America FirstPolymarketYes1
Sep 3, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 30, 2026America FirstPolymarketYes2
Aug 30, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 25, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026America FirstKalshiYes2
Aug 24, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 23, 2026America FirstPolymarketYes2
Aug 21, 2026America FirstKalshiYes2
Aug 20, 2026America FirstKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Aug 13, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 10, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo0
Aug 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Aug 10, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026America FirstPolymarketNo0
Aug 6, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026America FirstKalshiYes1
Aug 4, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026America FirstKalshiNo–
Aug 3, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0
Jul 30, 2026America FirstKalshiNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “America First”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “America First” at 36 of 111 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 20, 2025 (32%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “America First” next time?
37%, from settlement history (n=111). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘America First’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/america-first (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=america%20first · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP