Will Donald Trump say “Iran” 5+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” 5+ times at 22 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (65%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=34, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 3 times.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Iran (5+ times)
- Probability
- 59% · n=34
- Settled
- 22/34 (65%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
12 counted.
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…in Ohio and I was called by Vive Ramwami you know and I ran against him he ran against me in the primaries and he's…
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted.
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…financially, and otherwise. And now we're ensuring that. And as you know, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Should have been done years ago.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 44 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Iran 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 26 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| May 27, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Iran (5+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Iran 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Iran (5+ times)”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” 5+ times at 22 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (65%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran (5+ times)” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=34). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran (5+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
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