Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
7 known appearances0 of 7 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 19, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 111 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (14 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Oct 12, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Ohio transcript pending
- Oct 13, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Alaska transcript pending
- Oct 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Arizona transcript pending
- Oct 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Montana transcript pending
- Oct 15, 2026 Donald Trump: Tele-rally with Darline Graham transcript pending
- Oct 16, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Georgia transcript pending
- Oct 17, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Kentucky transcript pending
Markets
45 words · 24 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 11 | 23 | ✓ | 60%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | 84%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Ilhan / Omar | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 75%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 87%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 77%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 80%n=248 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 73%n=189 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 63%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Houthi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | – | 86%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | – | 0 | – | 79%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | – | 0 | – | 77%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | – | 70%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | Yes | – | 0 | – | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | – | 63%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | – | 0 | – | 63%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | – | 62%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Voter ID | Yes | – | 0 | – | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | – | 0 | – | 59%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Vivek / Ramaswamy | Yes | – | 2 | – | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | – | 49%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | – | 62%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Lisa Cook | No | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zacharia | No | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 53%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | – | 47%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Cybersecurity / Cyber Security | No | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | – | 45%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 32%n=526 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 16%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 15%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 11%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 11%n=61 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26OCT19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP