Will Donald Trump say “Sleepy Joe”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sleepy Joe” at 102 of 134 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (76%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=134, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 4 times.

75%from settlement history only · n=134Next: Rally, Oct 23, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Sleepy Joe

Probability
75% · n=134
Settled
102/134 (76%)
Latest transcripts
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker43:18In transcript

…was right. The other one was $185. Now, do you think that sleepy Joe Biden Do you think he's looking at pumps to find out…

Donald Trumpspeaker57:34In transcript

…heard from the borders. That was Kamala. She was appointed borders by Sleepy Joe. And I said, "Did you ever hear?" "No." "Did she ever…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker45:01In transcript

You think Sleepy Joe would say, "Gee, the wall's not looking too good today." He He didn't know he was alive. Guy was he the…

Donald Trumpspeaker45:26In transcript

Yeah. He wants me to imitate Sleepy Joe. I hate doing it. You know what happens when I do that? The fake news back there.…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 25, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes6
Oct 23, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 22, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes2
Oct 21, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes3
Oct 18, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
Oct 17, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 12, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 11, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
Oct 9, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
Oct 5, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 4, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes1
Oct 3, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
Sep 27, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes1
Sep 22, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo0
Sep 20, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes2
Sep 18, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketNo–
Sep 13, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes4
Sep 10, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
Sep 6, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes3
Aug 30, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes4
Aug 23, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes4
Aug 16, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes3
Aug 9, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes3
Aug 9, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes4
Aug 5, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes2
Aug 2, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes4
Aug 2, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes6
Jul 26, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes5
Jul 26, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes6
Jul 24, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo0
Jul 19, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes7
Jul 16, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo0
Jul 14, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
Jul 12, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes3
Jul 8, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo0
Jul 5, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes7
Jul 4, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
Jun 28, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes15
Jun 26, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes1
Jun 24, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
Jun 23, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes5
Jun 21, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes2
Jun 15, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketNo–
Jun 14, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes1
Jun 7, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes6
May 31, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
May 24, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes0
May 24, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
May 20, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–
May 17, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketYes0
May 17, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
May 14, 2026Sleepy JoePolymarketNo–
May 10, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiYes0
May 4, 2026Sleepy JoeKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Sleepy Joe”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Sleepy Joe” at 102 of 134 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (76%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Sleepy Joe” next time?
75%, from settlement history (n=134). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Sleepy Joe’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/sleepy-joe (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=sleepy%20joe · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP