Will Donald Trump say “Fraud” 3+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fraud” 3+ times at any of the 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 12% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 0 times.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 1¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fraud (3+ times)
- Probability
- 12% · n=11
- Settled
- 0/11 (0%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…that Elhan Nur say Elmei, her real name is openly admitted to fraud and she will not be legally allowed to be a member of…
…be very, very happy. We will win our war on corruption and fraud and let our great vice president keep doing his job. He's doing…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) |  Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Fraud (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fraud (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fraud” 3+ times at any of the 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fraud (3+ times)” next time?
- 12%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fraud (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fraud-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fraud%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP