Will Donald Trump say “Ukraine”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ukraine” at 58 of 106 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (55%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=106, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

41%from settlement history only · n=106Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
90¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ukraine

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Ukraine

Probability
41% · n=106
Settled
58/106 (55%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker24:43In transcript

…day I was talking to Vladimir Putin about settling his war with Ukraine, which I think we're getting closer to, by the way, maybe now…

Donald Trumpspeaker27:14In transcript

…other. You know, we're negotiating with Russia to stop the war with Ukraine. And we have been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not…

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 13 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

13 counted; 3 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:16:01In transcript

…very large piece of land. And, you know, you can say that Ukraine is doing well or poorly, but the land gets bigger and bigger…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:17:09In transcript

…very big. And she said they have to settle this war. Look, Ukraine has lost a lot of people. Russia has lost a lot of…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026UkraineKalshiYes2
Oct 20, 2026UkraineKalshiYes13
Oct 18, 2026UkraineKalshiYes4
Oct 15, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Oct 11, 2026UkraineKalshiYes3
Oct 4, 2026UkraineKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 28, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Sep 27, 2026UkraineKalshiYes9
Sep 24, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Sep 20, 2026UkraineKalshiYes11
Sep 18, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo–
Sep 13, 2026UkraineKalshiYes5
Sep 12, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Sep 6, 2026UkraineKalshiYes11
Sep 3, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–
Aug 30, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Aug 30, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo–
Aug 24, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Aug 23, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Aug 16, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Aug 9, 2026UkraineKalshiYes2
Aug 7, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Aug 3, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Aug 2, 2026UkraineKalshiYes5
Jul 31, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Jul 29, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026UkrainePolymarketYes–
Jul 28, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo0
Jul 28, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–
Jul 26, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 26, 2026UkraineKalshiYes2
Jul 19, 2026UkraineKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 16, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo0
Jul 16, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Jul 14, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Jul 13, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Jul 7, 2026UkrainePolymarketYes3
Jul 7, 2026UkraineKalshiYes3
Jun 26, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo0
Jun 24, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Jun 20, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–
Jun 17, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Jun 17, 2026UkraineKalshiYes1
Jun 16, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026UkraineKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026UkraineKalshiYes2
Jun 15, 2026UkrainePolymarketNo0
Jun 15, 2026UkrainePolymarketYes–
Jun 15, 2026UkraineKalshiNo0
May 8, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
May 6, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026UkraineKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026UkraineKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Ukraine”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ukraine” at 58 of 106 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (55%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ukraine” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=106). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ukraine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ukraine (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ukraine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP