Will Donald Trump say “Drone”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drone” at 22 of 69 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2025 (32%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=69, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

40%from settlement history only · n=69counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Drone

Probability
40% · n=69
Settled
22/69 (32%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 7:44In transcript

…And again they refused. The regime continued building a vast missile and drone stockpile that threatened the security of every American service member in the…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 6, 2026DronePolymarketYes–
Oct 6, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Sep 21, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Sep 21, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Aug 7, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Aug 3, 2026DroneKalshiYes1
Jul 31, 2026DroneKalshiYes2
Jul 29, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026DroneKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Jul 24, 2026DronePolymarketYes3
Jul 16, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Jul 15, 2026DronePolymarketNo0
Jul 15, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Jul 14, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Jul 8, 2026DronePolymarketYes3
Jul 8, 2026DroneKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jul 8, 2026DroneKalshiYes3
Jul 7, 2026DroneKalshiYes4
Jun 24, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Jun 20, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026DroneKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026DroneKalshiYes1
Jun 17, 2026DroneKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 30, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
May 27, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
May 24, 2026DronePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 20, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
May 19, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
May 14, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Apr 26, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Apr 25, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Apr 8, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Apr 8, 2026DroneKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 1, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Mar 31, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Mar 22, 2026DronePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Mar 20, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026DronePolymarketYes–
Mar 17, 2026DronePolymarketYes–
Mar 16, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Mar 15, 2026DronePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Mar 9, 2026DronePolymarketYes–
Mar 9, 2026DroneKalshiYes–
Mar 3, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Feb 22, 2026DronePolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Feb 5, 2026DronePolymarketNo–
Jan 18, 2026DroneKalshiNo–
Dec 30, 2025DroneKalshiYes–
Dec 29, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Dec 25, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Dec 23, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Dec 19, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Nov 28, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Nov 23, 2025DronePolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Nov 5, 2025DronePolymarketNo–
Oct 29, 2025DroneKalshiNo–
Oct 24, 2025DroneKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Drone”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drone” at 22 of 69 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 22, 2025 (32%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Drone” next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=69). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Drone’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/drone (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=drone · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP