Will Donald Trump say “Elon / Musk”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon / Musk” at 29 of 70 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 9, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=70, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Elon / Musk
- Probability
- 44% · n=70
- Settled
- 29/70 (41%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…tremendous respect for, Elhan Omar. And I was saddened to hear that Elon Omar is not her name. It's not It's not Elon Omar. The…
…want, but there are easier ways for you to live." But because Elon used a fake name to be sworn in, I assumed that she…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…has been an incredible partner to law enforcement, as has X and Elon Musk. In April, FBI and the Dubai Police announced the arrest of…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…popular. Federal government puts in a thousand and we have tremendous men. Elon just made a big investment. Uh Michael Dell and Susan put in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Elon / Musk |  Kalshi | No | 5 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Elon / Musk |  Polymarket | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 21, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 3, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Elon / Musk”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Elon / Musk” at 29 of 70 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 9, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Elon / Musk” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=70). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Elon / Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP