Will Donald Trump say “Stock Market”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stock Market” at 94 of 189 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=189, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.

47%from settlement history only · n=189Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
94¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Stock Market

Probability
47% · n=189
Settled
94/189 (50%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker37:53In transcript

…of America by far than we have ever had before and the stock market has set 88 all-time record highs since the election less than…

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker35:49In transcript

…and that's why you're building all of these plants all over. The stock market has set 88 all-time records in just this short less than…

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Oct 22, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Oct 21, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Oct 19, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo–
Sep 29, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 28, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo–
Sep 28, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo–
Sep 24, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes1
Sep 22, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo0
Sep 17, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 16, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 12, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes5
Sep 12, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes5
Sep 12, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Sep 8, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Sep 3, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Aug 30, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Aug 25, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes2
Aug 21, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes2
Aug 21, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes2
Aug 20, 2026Stock MarketKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketYes1
Aug 14, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Aug 13, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026Stock MarketKalshiYes1
Aug 6, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo0
Aug 6, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Aug 6, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Stock Market”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stock Market” at 94 of 189 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 29, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stock Market” next time?
47%, from settlement history (n=189). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP