Will Donald Trump say “Fraud”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fraud” at 47 of 106 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (44%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=106, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

44%from settlement history only · n=106counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Fraud

Probability
44% · n=106
Settled
47/106 (44%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · said 7 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

7 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:14In transcript

…everybody for being here. The effort to stop cyber crime and cyber fraud has been ongoing for many years, but I think we're closer to…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:35In transcript

…Americans' money, prey on senior citizens, exploit children and young people through fraud, ransomware, impersonization seen -- the -- the schemes that they use for…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 30 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

30 counted; 32 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker34:45In transcript

…done an incredible job. They've sought out and found tremendous amounts of fraud in various states and it's nothing by comparison to what they're looking…

Donald Trumpspeaker35:10In transcript

…one of my administration, we've waged an unprecedented war on corruption and fraud, and will not let our country be looted and plundered by thieves…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026FraudKalshiYes7
Oct 20, 2026FraudKalshiYes30
Oct 15, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 3, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026FraudKalshiYes–
Sep 18, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026FraudKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 13, 2026FraudKalshiYes4
Sep 10, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026FraudKalshiYes2
Sep 9, 2026FraudKalshiYes2
Sep 6, 2026FraudKalshiYes4
Sep 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 30, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Aug 30, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Aug 24, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 23, 2026FraudKalshiYes5
Aug 21, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 20, 2026FraudKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 16, 2026FraudKalshiYes5
Aug 14, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 13, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 10, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Aug 9, 2026FraudKalshiYes3
Aug 6, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 6, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Aug 4, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Aug 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Aug 2, 2026FraudKalshiYes7
Jul 31, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Jul 30, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026FraudKalshiNo0
Jul 26, 2026FraudPolymarketYes2
Jul 26, 2026FraudKalshiYes2
Jul 22, 2026FraudPolymarketYes1
Jul 22, 2026FraudKalshiYes1
Jul 19, 2026FraudKalshiYes10
Jul 16, 2026FraudKalshiYes5
Jul 14, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jul 13, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jul 12, 2026FraudKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 5, 2026FraudKalshiYes4
Jul 4, 2026FraudKalshiNo–
Jul 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fraud” at 47 of 106 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (44%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fraud” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=106). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP