Will Donald Trump say “Biden”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden” at 249 of 364 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (68%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=364, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

60%from settlement history only · n=364counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Biden

Probability
60% · n=364
Settled
249/364 (68%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker23:58In transcript

Yeah. Sure, sure. We had a wonderful man who, during the Biden administration, was taken hostage in Russia. They claimed things -- we won't get…

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

4 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker36:31In transcript

…look, it's been going on for a long time. But in the Biden administration, it was sick. Nick used his popular YouTube channel to reveal…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:05:35In transcript

…that poured into France and they were also unchecked, unvetted like with Biden, what he was doing. We don't do that. We got many of…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Oct 20, 2026BidenKalshiYes4
Oct 19, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 8, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Sep 28, 2026BidenPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026BidenPolymarketNo–
Sep 24, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026BidenKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Sep 21, 2026BidenPolymarketNo–
Sep 21, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2026BidenPolymarketYes–
Sep 18, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 17, 2026BidenPolymarketYes5
Sep 17, 2026BidenKalshiYes2
Sep 17, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 17, 2026BidenKalshiYes5
Sep 16, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Sep 12, 2026BidenPolymarketYes2
Sep 12, 2026BidenPolymarketNo0
Sep 12, 2026BidenKalshiYes2
Sep 12, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026BidenPolymarketYes1
Sep 10, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Sep 10, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Sep 9, 2026BidenKalshiYes2
Sep 8, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Sep 3, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 30, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 25, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Aug 24, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026BidenKalshiYes6
Aug 20, 2026BidenKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026BidenPolymarketYes2
Aug 14, 2026BidenKalshiYes2
Aug 13, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026BidenPolymarketNo0
Aug 10, 2026BidenKalshiYes1
Aug 10, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 7, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 6, 2026BidenKalshiYes1

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Biden”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden” at 249 of 364 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 10, 2024 (68%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Biden” next time?
60%, from settlement history (n=364). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Biden’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/biden (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=biden · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP