Will Donald Trump say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” at 156 of 255 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 28, 2024 (61%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=255, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

54%from settlement history only · n=255counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Tariff

Probability
54% · n=255
Settled
156/255 (61%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 35:25In transcript

…more now because we're a little longer than that. Thanks to my tariffs, my favorite word, I have to tell you. But no longer. It's…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 47:46In transcript

…Look, they all remember 28 billion dollars. It all came out of tariffs. My my fifth favorite word used to be my favorite word, but…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 29:29In transcript

…in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my favorite…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 17:36In transcript

…special relationships to this day, very, very special trade, the use of tariffs and the threat of tariffs and various other reasons depending on the…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 19, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Oct 15, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Oct 8, 2026TariffPolymarketNo–
Oct 8, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Sep 28, 2026TariffPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026TariffPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026TariffKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026TariffKalshiYes3
Sep 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 17, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026TariffKalshiYes2
Sep 12, 2026TariffKalshiYes5
Sep 12, 2026TariffKalshiYes2
Sep 11, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026TariffKalshiYes3
Sep 10, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 8, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Sep 3, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 25, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026TariffKalshiYes5
Aug 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 7, 2026TariffKalshiYes5
Aug 6, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 6, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026TariffKalshiYes11
Aug 4, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 4, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Aug 3, 2026TariffPolymarketNo0
Aug 3, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026TariffKalshiYes6
Jul 30, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jul 29, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026TariffKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026TariffKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026TariffKalshiYes3
Jul 28, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jul 27, 2026TariffKalshiYes10

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” at 156 of 255 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 28, 2024 (61%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tariff” next time?
54%, from settlement history (n=255). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP