Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Arizona, Oct 14, 2026
At the rally on Oct 14, 2026, Donald Trump said 32 of the 52 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
52 words · 32 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 83%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 73%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 68%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 68%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 67%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 65%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 61%n=251 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 59%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 57%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 56%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 54%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 52%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Shit / Ass | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 49%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 48%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 14+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chip | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Copper | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nevada | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TSMC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biggs | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 43%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 40%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 40%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| TSMC / Taiwan | Yes | 37%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 34%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 30%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 23%n=277 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 17%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 69%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Colorado River | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | No | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 42%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| School Choice | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 40%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 21%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 20%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 19%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 18%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 17%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 12%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 9%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 6%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=528 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-14:rally-arizona · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-14:rally-arizona · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP