Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Oct 18, 2026
In the week ending Oct 18, 2026, Donald Trump posted 5 of the 11 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 70%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 66%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Deranged / Derangement | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 67%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nidal Hasan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Fool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownTruth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-18:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-18:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP