Will Donald Trump say “China”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” at 125 of 187 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (67%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 80% (n=187, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.

80%from settlement history only · n=187Next: Posts window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=china

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

China

Probability
80% · n=187
Settled
125/187 (67%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

4 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker28:06In transcript

…say that a very important element is the fact that Russia and China have not participated or participated in a much smaller way than they…

Donald Trumpspeaker29:33In transcript

…not, Russia could have participated much more strongly with Iran and, likewise, China. As you know, President Xi was here a week ago, likewise, China…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · said 1 time (counts)

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 25, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Oct 21, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes4
Oct 18, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes1
Oct 11, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes1
Oct 4, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes1
Sep 27, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes16
Sep 20, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes5
Sep 16, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 13, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 6, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes3
Aug 30, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes6
Aug 23, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes3
Aug 16, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes2
Aug 9, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes3
Aug 7, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes2
Aug 2, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes2
Jul 29, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo–
Jul 26, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes15
Jul 24, 2026ChinaKalshiYes3
Jul 19, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes13
Jul 16, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes14
Jul 12, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jul 5, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes5
Jun 28, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jun 26, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jun 23, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes7
Jun 21, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes4
Jun 14, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo0
Jun 4, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes8
May 24, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 20, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes–
May 19, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes–
May 18, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
May 8, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
May 7, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo–
May 7, 2026ChinaKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 6, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
May 5, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
May 4, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
May 1, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo–
May 1, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Apr 29, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Apr 26, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Apr 23, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Apr 16, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo–
Apr 13, 2026ChinaKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 12, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Apr 8, 2026ChinaKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 6, 2026ChinaPolymarketNo–
Apr 6, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026ChinaPolymarketYes–
Mar 31, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Mar 27, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Mar 27, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–
Mar 25, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Mar 20, 2026ChinaKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026ChinaKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “China”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “China” at 125 of 187 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 15, 2024 (67%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “China” next time?
80%, from settlement history (n=187). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/china (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP