Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina, Oct 21, 2026
At the rally on Oct 21, 2026, Donald Trump said 30 of the 59 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 57 of 59 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
59 words · 30 settled yes · our count agreed on 57 of 59- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hell 15+ times | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 7+ times | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum / Steel | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 53%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 61%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 59%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 57%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 72%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 37%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 30%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 60%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First / Gulf of America | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 26%n=269 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 16%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 52%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 39%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Bessent | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 40%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 14 | 15 | ✓ | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | No | 13 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal 12+ times | No | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security 5+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 14%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Milk | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Electricity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 7%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 5%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=524 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 15:36 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · RSBN (YouTube auto-captions) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
Where the listed words were said
…It would be a disaster. She's a fanatical transgender activist. How the hell do you run in South Carolina? Am I in a different state?…
…big, darling. You're going to win big. Well, you see, they're into transgender mutilization. Me personally, I could do without her. They like transgender mutilization…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…we're ensuring that. And as you know, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Should have been done years ago. Should have been done years…
…a lot of things right. But, you know, we have copper and aluminum. Henry knows this. Steel. And we came we're we the steel industry…
…coming down fast. We have right and the United States without Venezuela, not including the United States has more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia
…you know, remember, did you ever hear of a man named Barack Hussein Obama? Barack Barack Hussein Obama. Barack Hussein Obama. Everyone's calling him Barack…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…being built now. They're opening, some opened. And we're winning big in super intelligence. SI. Do you know what SI? We changed the name. and…
…in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my favorite…
…great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of citizenship. Oh, sir, may I please see…
You think Sleepy Joe would say, "Gee, the wall's not looking too good today." He He didn't know he was alive. Guy was he the…
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