Will Donald Trump say “Iran”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” at 83 of 124 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2024 (67%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=124, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

69%from settlement history only · n=124counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Donald Trump

Iran

Probability
69% · n=124
Settled
83/124 (67%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 20:20In transcript

…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 10:51In transcript

…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 27:21In transcript

…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 37:19In transcript

…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:08:33In transcript

…countries in Europe and, as you know, we're doing very well with Iran. We just have to make a final decision of which way do…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · said 5 times (counts)

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 18, 2026IranPolymarketYes5
Sep 16, 2026IranKalshiYes1
Sep 11, 2026IranPolymarketYes1
Aug 28, 2026IranKalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Aug 10, 2026IranKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026IranKalshiNo0
Jul 19, 2026IranPolymarketYes31
Jul 12, 2026IranPolymarketYes10
Jul 7, 2026IranPolymarketYes8
Jul 5, 2026IranPolymarketYes14
Jul 3, 2026IranKalshiYes1
Jul 1, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2026IranPolymarketYes3
Jun 25, 2026IranKalshiYes3
Jun 23, 2026IranPolymarketYes11
Jun 11, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
Jun 11, 2026IranKalshiYes2
Jun 11, 2026IranKalshiYes1
Jun 8, 2026IranPolymarketYes3
Jun 5, 2026IranKalshiNo5 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jun 4, 2026IranPolymarketYes5
May 22, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
May 19, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
May 15, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
May 14, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
May 11, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
May 8, 2026IranKalshiNo–
May 7, 2026IranKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 6, 2026IranKalshiYes–
May 4, 2026IranKalshiYes–
May 1, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Apr 29, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Apr 27, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Apr 23, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
Apr 21, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Apr 21, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Apr 13, 2026IranKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 6, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
Apr 6, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Apr 1, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 31, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Mar 31, 2026IranKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 27, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
Mar 27, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 26, 2026IranPolymarketNo–
Mar 26, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Mar 25, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 24, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 23, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 20, 2026IranPolymarketYes–
Mar 20, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 19, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 17, 2026IranKalshiNo–
Mar 17, 2026IranKalshiYes–
Mar 17, 2026IranKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” at 83 of 124 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2024 (67%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran” next time?
69%, from settlement history (n=124). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP