Will Donald Trump say “NATO”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” at 41 of 98 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (42%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=98, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

40%from settlement history only · n=98counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

NATO

Probability
40% · n=98
Settled
41/98 (42%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:08:57In transcript

…not nice. You know, we spend hundreds of billions a year on NATO and they said, no. But they were nice enough to give us…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 27:39In transcript

…addition to America and greatly protects them. It also very much enhances NATO with who has a great leader in. Mark, I know you're in…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not said

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Oct 19, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Sep 28, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026NATOPolymarketYes2
Sep 22, 2026NATOPolymarketNo0
Sep 22, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026NATOPolymarketNo0
Sep 12, 2026NATOKalshiYes2
Sep 12, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Aug 23, 2026NATOPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Aug 16, 2026NATOPolymarketNo0
Aug 11, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jul 29, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026NATOKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026NATOKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jul 16, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Jul 15, 2026NATOKalshiYes1
Jul 13, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jul 9, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jul 7, 2026NATOPolymarketYes4
Jul 7, 2026NATOKalshiYes4
Jun 20, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026NATOKalshiNo0
Jun 14, 2026NATOPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed))
Jun 14, 2026NATOPolymarketNo0
May 31, 2026NATOPolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 31, 2026NATOPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 27, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
May 8, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Apr 29, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Apr 27, 2026NATOPolymarketNo–
Apr 23, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Apr 17, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Apr 15, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Apr 13, 2026NATOKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 12, 2026NATOPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 12, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Apr 6, 2026NATOPolymarketYes–
Apr 6, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026NATOPolymarketNo–
Apr 1, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026NATOPolymarketNo–
Mar 31, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026NATOKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 29, 2026NATOPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 27, 2026NATOPolymarketYes–
Mar 27, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Mar 26, 2026NATOPolymarketNo–
Mar 26, 2026NATOKalshiNo–
Mar 23, 2026NATOPolymarketNo–
Mar 19, 2026NATOKalshiYes–
Mar 17, 2026NATOPolymarketYes–
Mar 3, 2026NATOKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “NATO”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” at 41 of 98 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (42%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “NATO” next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=98). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP