Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Alaska, Oct 13, 2026
At the rally on Oct 13, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 51 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
51 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 81%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 71%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 67%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 66%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 65%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 64%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 62%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 60%n=250 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 58%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 55%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 53%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 10+ times | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 52%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 49%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 46%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ambler | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ranked Choice | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | Yes | 44%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 40%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | No | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 54%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 53%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spoiler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Salmon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fish / Fishing / Fisherman | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 44%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 43%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 43%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 43%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 36%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 32%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 24%n=276 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 22%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 20%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 18%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 13%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 9%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 6%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=527 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-13:rally-alaska · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-13:rally-alaska · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP