Will Donald Trump say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 30 of 87 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (34%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=87, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

35%from settlement history only · n=87counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability
35% · n=87
Settled
30/87 (34%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Roundtable · Oct 21, 2026 · 4:55In transcript

…nearly $1 billion of cyber currency and -- tied to foreign scammers, shut down more than 500 fraudulent websites, and coordinated with technology companies to…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jun 10, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo0
Apr 20, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Apr 17, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 26, 2026Shutdown / Shut downPolymarketYes–
Mar 26, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 26, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 26, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Mar 25, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Mar 24, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Mar 23, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Mar 19, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 11, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Mar 9, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Mar 8, 2026Shutdown / Shut downPolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Mar 1, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 24, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 22, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 21, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 21, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 20, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 6, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 5, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 4, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Feb 3, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Jan 30, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Jan 30, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Jan 29, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownPolymarketNo–
Jan 28, 2026Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 22, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 22, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 20, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 19, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 19, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 18, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Nov 18, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 14, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 13, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownPolymarketNo–
Nov 13, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 12, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 12, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 11, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Nov 11, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 11, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 8, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Nov 7, 2025Shutdown / Shut downPolymarketYes–
Nov 7, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 7, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 7, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Nov 6, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiYes–
Nov 6, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Nov 2, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–
Oct 28, 2025Shutdown / Shut DownKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 30 of 87 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (34%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
35%, from settlement history (n=87). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP