Will Donald Trump say “Maduro”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Maduro” at 32 of 72 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 14, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=72, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 57¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Maduro
- Probability
- 44% · n=72
- Settled
- 32/72 (44%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…We captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting trial. And we won the war in Venezuela…
…we're captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in Venezuela. One…
…we captured and brought to justice the outlaw dictator of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who's now awaiting trial for lots of bad things. And we won…
…be flawless against attack, and arrested the outlaw dictator, real criminal Nicolas Maduro. Since that day, hundreds of Venezuelan political prisoners have been freed. They've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Maduro |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Maduro |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| May 20, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 25, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Maduro | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Maduro | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Maduro | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Maduro”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Maduro” at 32 of 72 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 14, 2025 (44%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Maduro” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=72). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Maduro’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/maduro (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=maduro · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP