Will Donald Trump say “World Cup”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World Cup” at 28 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (41%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=68, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

49%from settlement history only · n=68counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=world%20cup

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

World Cup

Probability
49% · n=68
Settled
28/68 (41%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 31, 2026World CupPolymarketYes3
Aug 9, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Aug 6, 2026World CupKalshiYes3
Aug 4, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Aug 2, 2026World CupPolymarketYes4
Jul 31, 2026World CupKalshiYes27
Jul 26, 2026World CupPolymarketYes3
Jul 24, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 23, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jul 23, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 20, 2026World CupKalshiYes–
Jul 19, 2026World CupPolymarketYes1
Jul 16, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jul 16, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 12, 2026World CupPolymarketYes2
Jul 12, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jul 9, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jul 8, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 8, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 7, 2026World cupPolymarketNo0
Jul 7, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 6, 2026World CupKalshiYes2
Jul 5, 2026World CupPolymarketYes2
Jul 4, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Jul 3, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jul 3, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jul 2, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Jul 1, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026World CupKalshiYes6
Jun 26, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jun 26, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 25, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jun 25, 2026World CupPolymarketNo0
Jun 24, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 24, 2026World CupKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 24, 2026World CupKalshiYes–
Jun 23, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 22, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 21, 2026World CupPolymarketYes2
Jun 18, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026World CupKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026World CupKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026World CupKalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026World CupPolymarketYes2
Jun 15, 2026World CupKalshiYes2
Jun 13, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
Jun 10, 2026World CupKalshiYes1
May 31, 2026World CupKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
May 27, 2026World CupPolymarketYes–
May 24, 2026World CupPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 22, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
May 17, 2026World CupPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 11, 2026World CupPolymarketNo–
May 11, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
May 8, 2026World CupKalshiNo–
May 7, 2026World CupKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “World Cup”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World Cup” at 28 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 30, 2025 (41%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “World Cup” next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=68). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘World Cup’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/world-cup (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=world%20cup · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP