Will Donald Trump say “Border”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” at 77 of 123 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 16, 2024 (63%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=123, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Border
- Probability
- 64% · n=123
- Settled
- 77/123 (63%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone.…
…in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like…
…mean, at the War Department, we've done the same on the southwest border with our interagency partners on law enforcement in cities all across America…
…it's a big reason. Take away your second amendment. Wants to open your borders. Wants to do so many things that you're just not going
…just such a big part of the country is corrupt. We need borders, we need good elections, we need great journalists and we have to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Border |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Border |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | 8 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 22, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 12, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 11, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | 25 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Border | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 25, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Border | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Border | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Border | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Border”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” at 77 of 123 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 16, 2024 (63%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Border” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=123). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP