Will Donald Trump say “Dividend / Stimulus”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dividend / Stimulus” at 29 of 40 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 22, 2025 (72%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 91% (n=40, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

91%from settlement history only · n=40Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
96¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dividend%20%2F%20stimulus

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Dividend / Stimulus

Probability
91% · n=40
Settled
29/40 (72%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:12:05In transcript

…ago. And the 5,000 I'll get done, too, because the 5,000 Trump dividend is approximately 1 trillion. That's what it's going to cost. But we…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:08:52In transcript

…very much. I know what they're talking about." 1776. And the $5,000 dividend is approximately, think of it only. It's a lot, but it's $1…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:09:11In transcript

…world. Growth. The only caveat on the let's call it the Trump dividend is that you have to spend the money in the United States…

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 40 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 31, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes10
Oct 25, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes9
Oct 23, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes2
Oct 22, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes2
Oct 20, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 19, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 18, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 17, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 12, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 11, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 9, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 4, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes1
Oct 3, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Sep 27, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes1
Sep 20, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes2
Sep 16, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 11, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Jan 29, 2026Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Jan 25, 2026Stimulus / DividendKalshiYes3
Jan 18, 2026Stimulus / DividendKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Jan 12, 2026Stimulus / DividendKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 23, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Dec 20, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Dec 19, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Dec 18, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiYes–
Dec 16, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Dec 13, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Dec 12, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Dec 12, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Dec 10, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–
Nov 22, 2025Dividend / StimulusKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Dividend / Stimulus”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dividend / Stimulus” at 29 of 40 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 22, 2025 (72%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Dividend / Stimulus” next time?
91%, from settlement history (n=40). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Dividend / Stimulus’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/dividend-or-stimulus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dividend%20%2F%20stimulus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP