Will Donald Trump say “Blockade”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Blockade” at 20 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (51%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=39, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 2 times.

46%from settlement history only · n=39Next: Rally, Oct 23, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Blockade

Probability
46% · n=39
Settled
20/39 (51%)
Latest transcripts
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker43:47In transcript

…was announced in the Wall Street Journal that our navies unbelieved the blockade more oil came out of the Hormone Strait over the last week…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker38:09In transcript

…it's amazing what we did. Our military is unbelievable. We have a blockade on the Trump straight. I call it the Trump straight. How do…

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 42 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 25, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes3
Oct 23, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Oct 22, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes2
Oct 21, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes1
Oct 18, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes1
Oct 17, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 11, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes1
Oct 9, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Oct 6, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Oct 4, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes0
Sep 28, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Sep 27, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes0
Sep 20, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes0
Aug 21, 2026BlockadePolymarketNo0
Aug 21, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo0
Aug 11, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026BlockadeKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 16, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo0
Jun 20, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
May 27, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
May 10, 2026BlockadePolymarketYes0
May 8, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
May 3, 2026BlockadePolymarketNo0
Apr 30, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Apr 26, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Apr 23, 2026BlockadePolymarketYes–
Apr 21, 2026BlockadePolymarketYes–
Apr 21, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Apr 21, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Apr 17, 2026BlockadeKalshiYes–
Apr 16, 2026BlockadeKalshiNo–
Apr 15, 2026BlockadePolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Blockade”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Blockade” at 20 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (51%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Blockade” next time?
46%, from settlement history (n=39). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Blockade’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/blockade (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=blockade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP