Will Donald Trump say “Election”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Election” at 80 of 134 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (60%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=134, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

38%from settlement history only · n=134counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes no yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Election

Probability
38% · n=134
Settled
80/134 (60%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 5:31In transcript

…their seat to let somebody please raise your hand, please. In this election, the Democrat party has nominated the most extreme anti-American radicals ever to…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 8:04In transcript

…is, but that's why I don't understand why they are having the election to be honest with you. Turk also voted in favor of deadly…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 16:26In transcript

…them are sick and they want to destroy our country. In this election, I'm asking you to pretend I'm on the ballot because when I'm…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:03:49In transcript

…part of the country is corrupt. We need borders, we need good elections, we need great journalists and we have to stop the tremendous fraud…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 12:12In transcript

…of future greatness or generations? But I believe we'll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn't make sense for them not to.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 17, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Sep 17, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Aug 28, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Aug 25, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Aug 20, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 10, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Aug 10, 2026ElectionKalshiYes3
Aug 6, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes4
Aug 4, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Aug 3, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Aug 3, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026ElectionKalshiYes5
Jul 30, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo–
Jul 27, 2026ElectionKalshiYes2
Jul 24, 2026ElectionKalshiYes10
Jul 23, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Jul 23, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Jul 23, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 23, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 20, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 17, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Jul 16, 2026ElectionKalshiYes42
Jul 14, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jul 13, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 8, 2026ElectionKalshiYes6
Jul 7, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Jul 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes2
Jul 3, 2026ElectionKalshiYes3
Jul 2, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jul 1, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jun 24, 2026ElectionKalshiYes5
Jun 18, 2026ElectionPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jun 7, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Jun 5, 2026ElectionKalshiYes9
Jun 5, 2026ElectionKalshiYes9
Jun 4, 2026ElectionKalshiYes8
May 30, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 27, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 22, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
May 22, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 21, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 19, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
May 11, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 11, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
May 7, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Election”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Election” at 80 of 134 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (60%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Election” next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=134). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP