Will Donald Trump say “Fentanyl”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fentanyl” at 16 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 29, 2024 (24%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=68, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 1 time.

20%from settlement history only · n=68Next: Rally, Oct 23, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
1¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Fentanyl

Probability
20% · n=68
Settled
16/68 (24%)
Latest transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks in an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland · Sep 23, 2026 · 2:20In transcript

As you know, we tariffed them due to the fentanyl, and what they have is fentanyl is used for many purposes. But when it's used…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not said

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not said

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Oct 21, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 5, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 3, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 2, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Sep 30, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Sep 28, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026FentanylKalshiYes0
Sep 22, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026FentanylKalshiYes2
Aug 31, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Jul 16, 2026FentanylPolymarketNo0
Jul 16, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Jun 26, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Jun 24, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Jun 10, 2026FentanylKalshiYes1
May 18, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
May 15, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026FentanylPolymarketNo–
May 14, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
May 11, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
May 7, 2026FentanylKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 17, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Mar 8, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Feb 24, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Feb 5, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Feb 4, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Jan 30, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Jan 3, 2026FentanylPolymarketNo–
Jan 3, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Dec 23, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Dec 18, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Dec 16, 2025FentanylKalshiYes–
Dec 15, 2025FentanylPolymarketYes–
Dec 3, 2025FentanylKalshiYes–
Nov 6, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Nov 3, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025FentanylPolymarketNo–
Oct 12, 2025FentanylPolymarketNo0
Oct 7, 2025FentanylPolymarketNo–
Oct 7, 2025FentanylKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2025FentanylPolymarketNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Fentanyl”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fentanyl” at 16 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 29, 2024 (24%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fentanyl” next time?
20%, from settlement history (n=68). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fentanyl’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fentanyl (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fentanyl · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP