Will Donald Trump say “Israel”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel” at 42 of 76 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (55%), most recently on Sep 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=76, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

52%from settlement history only · n=76Next: Posts window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
62¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Israel

Probability
52% · n=76
Settled
42/76 (55%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 53:09In transcript

…I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite president?" He said, "Abraham Lincoln." I said,…

The PressreporterDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:31:11In transcript

On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 8:45In transcript

…we will mark the third anniversary of the October 7th attack in Israel, where terrorists funded by Iran tortured, mutilated and killed 1200 very innocent…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 20, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Sep 13, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Sep 6, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes2
Aug 30, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes8
Aug 23, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Aug 16, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Aug 9, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes4
Aug 2, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes3
Jul 28, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Jul 26, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Jul 19, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes3
Jul 12, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jul 7, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes1
Jul 5, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Jun 28, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo0
Jun 21, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes5
Jun 15, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes–
Jun 14, 2026IsraelPolymarketYes4
May 31, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
May 22, 2026IsraelPolymarketNo–
May 1, 2026IsraelKalshiYes–
Mar 7, 2026IsraelKalshiNo–
Mar 4, 2026IsraelKalshiYes–
Mar 3, 2026IsraelKalshiYes–
Mar 2, 2026IsraelKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026IsraelKalshiYes–
Feb 6, 2026IsraelKalshiYes–
Dec 29, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Dec 17, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Dec 3, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Nov 25, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Nov 22, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Nov 20, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Nov 19, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Nov 19, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Oct 18, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Oct 11, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Oct 10, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Sep 23, 2025IsraelPolymarketYes–
Sep 23, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Aug 8, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Jun 29, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Jun 27, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Jun 21, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
Jun 16, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Jun 5, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
May 21, 2025IsraelPolymarketNo–
May 21, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
May 20, 2025IsraelKalshiYes–
May 13, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
May 1, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Apr 29, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2025IsraelPolymarketNo–
Mar 13, 2025IsraelKalshiNo–
Mar 12, 2025IsraelPolymarketNo–
Mar 11, 2025IsraelPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Israel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel” at 42 of 76 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (55%), most recently on Sep 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel” next time?
52%, from settlement history (n=76). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/israel (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP