Will Donald Trump say “Hormuz”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz” at 38 of 102 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (37%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=102, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 1 time.

44%from settlement history only · n=102Next: Rally, Oct 23, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Hormuz

Probability
44% · n=102
Settled
38/102 (37%)
Latest transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 11:17In transcript

…more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, and more oil is flowing than at any point since the start…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not said

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not said

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 22, 2026HormuzKalshiYes0
Oct 21, 2026HormuzKalshiYes0
Oct 20, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026HormuzPolymarketYes–
Oct 14, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo–
Oct 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Oct 3, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 2, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Sep 28, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026HormuzPolymarketYes0
Sep 22, 2026HormuzKalshiYes0
Sep 22, 2026HormuzKalshiYes1
Sep 12, 2026HormuzKalshiYes3
Aug 25, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026HormuzKalshiYes1
Aug 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Aug 10, 2026HormuzKalshiYes1
Aug 5, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Aug 4, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 29, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026HormuzKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 24, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo0
Jul 24, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 24, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 23, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 20, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 17, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 16, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 14, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Jul 14, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 13, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo0
Jul 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 9, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jul 8, 2026HormuzKalshiYes2
Jul 7, 2026HormuzKalshiYes1
Jul 2, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jun 29, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jun 25, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jun 24, 2026HormuzKalshiNo0
Jun 24, 2026HormuzKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 23, 2026HormuzKalshiYes2
Jun 22, 2026HormuzKalshiYes2

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz” at 38 of 102 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (37%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hormuz” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=102). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP