Will Donald Trump say “Ceasefire”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ceasefire” at 19 of 133 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (14%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 6% (n=133, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

6%from settlement history only · n=133Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
18¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Ceasefire

Probability
6% · n=133
Settled
19/133 (14%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 10:27In transcript

…is now well over 300%. Yet even after we agreed to a cease fire for nuclear discussions, Iran promptly violated it with brazen acts of…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not said

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not said

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 31, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes1
Oct 23, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Oct 22, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Oct 21, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 18, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 17, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo–
Oct 16, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 13, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo–
Oct 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 11, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes1
Oct 9, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 5, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 4, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 3, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 2, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Sep 30, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes2
Sep 27, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes2
Sep 22, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo0
Sep 22, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 22, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes2
Sep 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 16, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 12, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 8, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Sep 6, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 3, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 30, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 25, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026CeasefirePolymarketNo–
Aug 24, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 10, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 9, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 7, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Aug 3, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Jul 30, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ceasefire” at 19 of 133 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (14%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ceasefire” next time?
6%, from settlement history (n=133). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP