Will Donald Trump say “Transgender”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” at 149 of 251 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 18, 2025 (59%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=251, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.

71%from settlement history only · n=251Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
98¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=transgender

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Transgender

Probability
71% · n=251
Settled
149/251 (59%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · said 6 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

6 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker8:56In transcript

…sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them transgender if they want, without parental without parental consent. I would say she's…

Donald Trumpspeaker10:56In transcript

…your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone. There's something actually, if you…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 8 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

8 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker5:30In transcript

…with that record. Turk voted to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents and with no parental consent. I didn't even…

Donald Trumpspeaker7:51In transcript

…a commitment tonight that Ashley Ashley is not in favor of the transgender mutilization of your children. Can we get that commitment? You swear. I…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled yes

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes6
Oct 22, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes8
Oct 20, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 19, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 18, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes1
Oct 17, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 13, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 12, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 12, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 11, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes1
Oct 10, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 9, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 4, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 3, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 3, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 2, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Sep 27, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes3
Sep 20, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes1
Sep 17, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo–
Sep 16, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 16, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 13, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes9
Sep 10, 2026TransgenderPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes3
Sep 9, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes6
Sep 6, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes3
Sep 6, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes8
Aug 30, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes4
Aug 30, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes5
Aug 30, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Aug 25, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Aug 24, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Aug 24, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes1
Aug 24, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–
Aug 23, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes7
Aug 23, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes9
Aug 21, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes7
Aug 21, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes7
Aug 20, 2026TransgenderPolymarketNo–
Aug 20, 2026TransgenderKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 16, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes2
Aug 16, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes7
Aug 14, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes2
Aug 14, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes2
Aug 13, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026TransgenderKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Transgender”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Transgender” at 149 of 251 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 18, 2025 (59%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Transgender” next time?
71%, from settlement history (n=251). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/transgender (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP