Will Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Blockade”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz / Blockade” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 3 times.
- Last 10
- 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hormuz / Blockade
- Probability
- 49% · n=6
- Settled
- 3/6 (50%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…was announced in the Wall Street Journal that our navies unbelieved the blockade more oil came out of the Hormone Strait over the last week…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
…it's amazing what we did. Our military is unbelievable. We have a blockade on the Trump straight. I call it the Trump straight. How do…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Hormuz / Blockade | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Blockade”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz / Blockade” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hormuz / Blockade” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hormuz / Blockade’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/blockade-or-hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=blockade%20%2F%20hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP