Will Donald Trump say “Iran” 3+ times?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” 3+ times at 50 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (74%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=68, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 2.

66%from settlement history only · n=68counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Iran (3+ times)

Probability
66% · n=68
Settled
50/68 (74%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker27:21In transcript

…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…

Donald Trumpspeaker29:31In transcript

…like it or not, Russia could have participated much more strongly with Iran and, likewise, China. As you know, President Xi was here a week…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

4 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:08:33In transcript

…countries in Europe and, as you know, we're doing very well with Iran. We just have to make a final decision of which way do…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:34:24In transcript

…the war is over -- it's going to end very soon, the Iran war. I had no choice. You have -- you can't let them…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes3
Oct 21, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes3
Oct 20, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes4
Oct 7, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes7
Sep 11, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Sep 8, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo1
Sep 3, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 30, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 25, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes6
Aug 14, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes10
Aug 13, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes5
Aug 7, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes3
Aug 4, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Aug 3, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes9
Jul 31, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes8
Jul 30, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes–
Jul 27, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes5
Jul 24, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes4
Jul 24, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes5
Jul 24, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes5
Jul 24, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes4
Jul 23, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo1
Jul 23, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo2
Jul 22, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes5
Jul 20, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Jul 16, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo2
Jul 15, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes6
Jul 14, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes9
Jul 13, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Jul 6, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes4
Jul 4, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo–
Jul 2, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Jun 29, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo2
Jun 26, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketYes12
Jun 26, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes12
Jun 25, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes8
Jun 24, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 22, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes4
Jun 20, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026Iran 3+ timesPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes4
Jun 17, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes6
Jun 16, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes11
Jun 16, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026Iran (3+ times)KalshiYes17

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Iran (3+ times)”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran” 3+ times at 50 of 68 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (74%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran (3+ times)” next time?
66%, from settlement history (n=68). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-3plus (CC BY 4.0)

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