Will Donald Trump say “Supreme Court”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Supreme Court” at 46 of 101 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (46%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=101, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 91¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Supreme Court
- Probability
- 66% · n=101
- Settled
- 46/101 (46%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
the Supreme Court of the United States, giving free health care to all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent…
…It shows a person's dishonest, that's all. He wants to pack the Supreme Court. He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted.
…won about 90% I'd say, Tim, 90% of that case in the Supreme Court. There's still that little wrinkle that they can go around of.…
…know, they want to pack the court. They want to expand the Supreme Court for a very specific reason in order to knock out your…
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted.
…to do great this one. Andrews wants to vote to pack the Supreme Court because by doing that, they can terminate a thing called your…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Supreme Court | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Supreme Court”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Supreme Court” at 46 of 101 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (46%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Supreme Court” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=101). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Supreme Court’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP