Will Donald Trump say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China / Chinese” at 68 of 102 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 11, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=102, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 83¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 61% · n=102
- Settled
- 68/102 (67%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted.
…say that a very important element is the fact that Russia and China have not participated or participated in a much smaller way than they…
…not, Russia could have participated much more strongly with Iran and, likewise, China. As you know, President Xi was here a week ago, likewise, China…
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted.
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…a war, you can't say, "Let's see. Let's get some steel from China." You got to have your own You got to have your own…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
…we're building more car plants than we've ever built before. We're leading China in SI, super intelligence. We're leading them. We're leading everybody. We're leading…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 28, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 22, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 12, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 30, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 28, 2026 | China / Chinese | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 24, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 21, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Aug 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “China / Chinese” at 68 of 102 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 11, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=102). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP