Will Donald Trump say “Windmill”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Windmill” at 33 of 74 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (45%), most recently on Aug 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=74, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the 8 latest transcripts we have (4 remarks, 2 rallies, 2 speeches), it reached the market's count 0 times.

30%from settlement history only · n=74Next: Rally, Oct 27, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 9 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
30¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=windmill

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Windmill

Probability
30% · n=74
Settled
33/74 (45%)
Latest transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not said

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · settled no

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Aug 30, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Aug 23, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Aug 16, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Aug 14, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Aug 9, 2026WindmillKalshiYes5
Aug 7, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Aug 3, 2026WindmillKalshiYes5
Aug 2, 2026WindmillKalshiYes2
Jul 27, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jul 26, 2026WindmillPolymarketYes10
Jul 26, 2026WindmillKalshiYes10
Jul 24, 2026WindmillPolymarketYes7
Jul 24, 2026WindmillKalshiYes7
Jul 23, 2026WindmillKalshiYes3
Jul 19, 2026WindmillKalshiYes7
Jul 12, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jul 5, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jul 1, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Jun 28, 2026WindmillKalshiYes3
Jun 25, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jun 21, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026WindmillKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 14, 2026WindmillKalshiYes3
Jun 7, 2026WindmillKalshiYes5
Jun 5, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Jun 4, 2026WindmillKalshiYes5
May 31, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
May 24, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
May 21, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
May 17, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
May 14, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
May 10, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
May 3, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Apr 26, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Apr 19, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Apr 17, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Apr 12, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Apr 5, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Mar 31, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Mar 29, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Mar 27, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–
Mar 23, 2026WindmillPolymarketNo–
Mar 22, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Mar 17, 2026WindmillKalshiYes–
Mar 15, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Mar 11, 2026WindmillKalshiYes–
Mar 8, 2026WindmillKalshiYes0
Mar 4, 2026WindmillKalshiYes–
Mar 3, 2026WindmillKalshiYes–
Mar 1, 2026WindmillKalshiNo0
Feb 28, 2026WindmillKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Windmill”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Windmill” at 33 of 74 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (45%), most recently on Aug 16, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Windmill” next time?
30%, from settlement history (n=74). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Windmill’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/windmill (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=windmill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP