Will Donald Trump say “Hottest”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hottest” at 178 of 350 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 6, 2025 (51%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=350, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

44%from settlement history only · n=350Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
94¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hottest

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Hottest

Probability
44% · n=350
Settled
178/350 (51%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker44:26In transcript

…than two years ago, our country was dead and now we're the hottest country anywhere in the world. Hottest in the world. And with our…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker41:27In transcript

was dead. And now we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. They say it. We have the hottest We have the hottest country…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 23, 2026HottestKalshiYes2
Oct 22, 2026HottestKalshiYes3
Oct 20, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Oct 6, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 30, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Sep 28, 2026HottestPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026HottestKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026HottestPolymarketNo0
Sep 17, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Sep 17, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026HottestPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 16, 2026HottestKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 12, 2026HottestPolymarketYes4
Sep 12, 2026HottestKalshiYes4
Sep 12, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026HottestPolymarketNo0
Sep 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Sep 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Sep 8, 2026HottestKalshiYes1
Sep 3, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Aug 30, 2026HottestKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 25, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026HottestPolymarketNo–
Aug 24, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 21, 2026HottestKalshiYes3
Aug 20, 2026HottestPolymarketNo–
Aug 20, 2026HottestKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026HottestPolymarketYes4
Aug 14, 2026HottestKalshiYes4
Aug 13, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Aug 10, 2026HottestPolymarketNo0
Aug 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 7, 2026HottestKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026HottestPolymarketYes1
Aug 6, 2026HottestPolymarketYes1
Aug 6, 2026HottestKalshiYes1
Aug 6, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Aug 6, 2026HottestKalshiYes1
Aug 5, 2026HottestKalshiYes2
Aug 4, 2026HottestKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026HottestKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Hottest”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hottest” at 178 of 350 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 6, 2025 (51%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hottest” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=350). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hottest’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hottest (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hottest · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP