Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Kansas, Oct 19, 2026
At the rally on Oct 19, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 53 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
53 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 87%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 75%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 74%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 67%n=256 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 58%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Diesel | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Estate Tax / Death Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aircraft / Aviation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cattle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Power Plant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boeing | Yes | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gay / Palestine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Water | Yes | 37%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 34%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 65%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 62%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| America First / Gulf of America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bull / Bullshit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 56%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 55%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 50%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Animal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drag Show | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 33+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Electricity | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bombardier | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Windmill | No | 43%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 42%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Fertilizer / Rural | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center / Electric / Electricity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ethanol | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 35%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | No | 28%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 26%n=283 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 25%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 19%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 7%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 5%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=533 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-19:rally-kansas · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-19:rally-kansas · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP