Will Donald Trump say “Israel / Israeli”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Israeli” at 55 of 115 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 8, 2026 (48%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=115, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

35%from settlement history only · n=115Next: Rally, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Israel / Israeli

Probability
35% · n=115
Settled
55/115 (48%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not said

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker53:09In transcript

…I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite president?" He said, "Abraham Lincoln." I said,…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:02:16In transcript

…the hell she come. The only thing I know is she hates Israel. That's the only thing. She hates Israel with a passion. Thank you.…

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 24, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Oct 23, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Oct 22, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Oct 21, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes3
Oct 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliPolymarketNo–
Oct 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliPolymarketNo–
Oct 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 12, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Oct 3, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 2, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Sep 22, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes1
Sep 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes1
Sep 11, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Sep 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Sep 3, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 25, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Aug 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 11, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes3
Aug 4, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 3, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes4
Jul 30, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 27, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 24, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes4
Jul 24, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes2
Jul 22, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 20, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliPolymarketNo0
Jul 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 15, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes1
Jul 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo0
Jul 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes8
Jul 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes3
Jul 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes1
Jul 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Israeli” at 55 of 115 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 8, 2026 (48%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
35%, from settlement history (n=115). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

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