Will Donald Trump say “Eight Wars”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eight Wars” at 42 of 80 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (52%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=80, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Eight Wars
- Probability
- 53% · n=80
- Settled
- 42/80 (52%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tariffs, the use of tariffs. Number one, tariffs have helped us end eight wars. Five of the eight, I would say, was because of trade…
…such respect. Not that I want. It's just ridiculous. I settled like eight wars. How the hell do you not get the Nobel Prize? The…
…they can make a deal. I thought -- you know, I settled eight wars. I thought that would be the easiest one. The hatred between…
Since I took office, it has been my great honor to settle eight wars and in so doing, become friendly with the leaders of many…
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Eight Wars |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Eight War |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 27, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Eight Wars | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Eight War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Eight Wars | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Eight War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 25, 2025 | Eight Wars | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Eight War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Eight wars | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Eight Wars”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eight Wars” at 42 of 80 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (52%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Eight Wars” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=80). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Eight Wars’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/eight-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=eight%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP