Will Donald Trump say “Fake News”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fake News” at 106 of 189 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (56%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=189, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

55%from settlement history only · n=189counts: named speaker only
Last 10
9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Fake News

Probability
55% · n=189
Settled
106/189 (56%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 13:53In transcript

…I mean, when you look outside and you have and I have to be careful because the fake news will say if I'm wrong, you

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 16:04In transcript

…quickly turned it around into what they are calling. And even the fake news back there is starting to see the number. Wow, that's a…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 45:31In transcript

…hate doing it. You know what happens when I do that? The fake news back there. My wife said to me, she says hello. She…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 20, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Oct 12, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Oct 9, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Oct 5, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Oct 3, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Oct 3, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Oct 2, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Oct 2, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Sep 28, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo–
Sep 24, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 21, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo–
Sep 21, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Sep 17, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes1
Sep 16, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 12, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes1
Sep 12, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketYes1
Sep 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes1
Sep 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Sep 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes1
Sep 3, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Aug 30, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 25, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 24, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Aug 21, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes3
Aug 20, 2026Fake NewsPolymarketNo–
Aug 20, 2026Fake NewsKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Aug 14, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes5
Aug 13, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Aug 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 10, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Aug 6, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Aug 5, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes5
Aug 4, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes–
Aug 3, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes2
Jul 31, 2026Fake NewsKalshiYes1
Jul 30, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo0
Jul 29, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–
Jul 28, 2026Fake NewsKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 28, 2026Fake NewsKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Fake News”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fake News” at 106 of 189 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (56%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fake News” next time?
55%, from settlement history (n=189). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fake News’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fake-new (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fake%20new · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP