Will Donald Trump say “Trillion”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trillion” at 72 of 107 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (67%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=107, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

63%from settlement history only · n=107counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Trillion

Probability
63% · n=107
Settled
72/107 (67%)
Last 6 speeches
said in 3 of 6

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 34:58In transcript

…So in much less than two years we secured commitments for $22.2 trillion of new investments into the United States of America. the greatest amount…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 35:26In transcript

…and we had a great ceremony. Ashley was there. So the $22 trillion 22.2 two, but the $22 trillion is the largest number ever for…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 29:06In transcript

…my political career, Tim. That'll be But we secured commitments for 22.2 trillion dollars in new investments coming into the United States. It's the greatest,…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 42:51In transcript

…will be amazing because the kind of money that's been stolen is trillions from this country by crooked politicians that made things and set things…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 3:00In transcript

We've secured commitments for $21 trillion in new investments from all over the planet, compared to less than $1 trillion in four years in the…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 10, 2026TrillionKalshiYes7
Jul 4, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jun 24, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jun 22, 2026TrillionKalshiYes3
Jun 17, 2026TrillionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026TrillionKalshiYes2
Jun 17, 2026TrillionKalshiNo0
Jun 13, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
May 22, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
May 22, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
May 8, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
May 6, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
May 4, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
May 1, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Apr 21, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Apr 17, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Apr 16, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Mar 27, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Mar 25, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Mar 23, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 20, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Mar 19, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 16, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 11, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 8, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Mar 7, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 6, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 4, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Feb 28, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 24, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 22, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Feb 21, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 14, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 13, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 12, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 6, 2026TrillionPolymarketNo–
Feb 6, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 5, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Feb 4, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 29, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 28, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Jan 28, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 23, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 22, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Jan 22, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 21, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Jan 18, 2026TrillionKalshiNo–
Jan 17, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 16, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 15, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 14, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 14, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 10, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Jan 9, 2026TrillionKalshiYes–
Dec 30, 2025TrillionKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Trillion”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trillion” at 72 of 107 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (67%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trillion” next time?
63%, from settlement history (n=107). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trillion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/trillion (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=trillion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP