Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” at 136 of 199 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (68%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=199, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

59%from settlement history only · n=199counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Nuclear

Probability
59% · n=199
Settled
136/199 (68%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not said

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted.

Donald Trumpspeaker1:34:51In transcript

…it's a small price to pay for not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. And they will never have a nuclear weapon. That's already --…

Donald Trumpspeaker1:35:21In transcript

…So, it really is, it's a very small price to pay for not letting the most dangerous country in the world have a nuclear weapon.

Every match in the transcript

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026NuclearPolymarketNo0
Oct 21, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Oct 20, 2026NuclearKalshiYes3
Oct 8, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Oct 7, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes–
Sep 29, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Sep 28, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Sep 24, 2026NuclearKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026NuclearKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026NuclearKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026NuclearKalshiYes9
Sep 17, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Sep 12, 2026NuclearPolymarketNo0
Sep 12, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026NuclearKalshiNo–
Sep 8, 2026NuclearKalshiYes3
Sep 3, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Aug 28, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes3
Aug 28, 2026NuclearKalshiYes3
Aug 23, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes2
Aug 16, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes1
Aug 9, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes2
Aug 7, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Aug 2, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes1
Jul 28, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes4
Jul 23, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes4
Jul 23, 2026NuclearKalshiYes4
Jul 16, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Jul 15, 2026NuclearKalshiYes2
Jul 14, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Jul 14, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Jul 13, 2026NuclearPolymarketNo0
Jul 13, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Jul 9, 2026NuclearKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes8
Jul 8, 2026NuclearKalshiYes8
Jul 7, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes2
Jul 7, 2026NuclearKalshiYes2
Jul 3, 2026NuclearPolymarketNo0
Jul 2, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Jun 29, 2026NuclearKalshiYes2
Jun 25, 2026NuclearKalshiYes5
Jun 23, 2026NuclearKalshiYes6
Jun 22, 2026NuclearKalshiYes9
Jun 18, 2026NuclearPolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026NuclearKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026NuclearKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026NuclearKalshiYes6
Jun 17, 2026NuclearKalshiYes5
Jun 16, 2026NuclearKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 7, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–
Jun 4, 2026NuclearPolymarketYes11
Jun 4, 2026NuclearKalshiYes11
May 30, 2026NuclearKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” at 136 of 199 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (68%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear” next time?
59%, from settlement history (n=199). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP