Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Kentucky, Oct 17, 2026
At the rally on Oct 17, 2026, Donald Trump said 29 of the 55 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
55 words · 29 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 86%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 74%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 74%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 73%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 71%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 5+ times | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 66%n=255 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 65%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 61%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 59%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 58%n=195 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 57%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | Yes | 56%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 55%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Bull / Bullshit | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 53%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 52%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 47%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Massie / Rand | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Massie | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ford | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First / Gulf of America | Yes | 38%n=142 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 20%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 13%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 67%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 66%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 62%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro | No | 57%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 5+ times | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Truck | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| KFC / Chicken | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Whiskey / Bourbon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | 45%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 41%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 39%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 36%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Gay / Palestine | No | 34%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center / Electric / Electricity | No | 31%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 31%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 28%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=282 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 17%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 17%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 17%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 15%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 9%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 7%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 5%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=532 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-17:rally-kentucky · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-17:rally-kentucky · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP