Will Donald Trump say “Rigged Election”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Rigged Election” at any of the 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 59¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Rigged Election
- Probability
- 28% · n=10
- Settled
- 0/10 (0%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Rigged Election |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Rigged Election |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Rigged Election | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Rigged Election | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Rigged Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Rigged Election | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Rigged Election | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Rigged Election”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Rigged Election” at any of the 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Rigged Election” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Rigged Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/rigged-election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=rigged%20election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP