Will Donald Trump say “Drill Baby Drill”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drill Baby Drill” at 54 of 118 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2024 (46%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=118, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 20¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Drill Baby Drill
- Probability
- 31% · n=118
- Settled
- 54/118 (46%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted.
combined. Think of that. And we're using it. Drill, baby drill. But when you include Venezuela, we have the single largest supply of oil by…
…very simple. The environmentalists don't like it. But the environmentalists are fake. Our policy is drill baby drill. And that's why we're doing so well.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Drill baby drill | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 21, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 8, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 3, 2026 | Drill baby drill | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 1, 2026 | Drill Baby Drill | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Drill Baby Drill”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drill Baby Drill” at 54 of 118 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2024 (46%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Drill Baby Drill” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=118). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Drill Baby Drill’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/drill-baby-drill (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=drill%20baby%20drill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP