Donald Trump: Announcement, Oct 19, 2026
In remarks on Oct 19, 2026, Donald Trump said 5 of the 25 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 60%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 45%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Be Best | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Foster / Fostering | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Super Intelligence | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | 59%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=374 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 56%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 55%n=260 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Trillion | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| Housing / Homeless | No | 40%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Social Media | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Take It Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scholarship | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Adopt / Adopted / Adoption | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Education | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Cut | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | No | 34%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| School Choice | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=283 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 31%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 22%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=533 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Oct 24, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-19:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-19:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP