Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear” 3+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 3+ times at 12 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (80%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 91¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nuclear (3+ times)
- Probability
- 72% · n=15
- Settled
- 12/15 (80%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
9 counted.
…a little bit. Small price to pay, but we took out the nuclear power from Iran cuz yours is going to go down. They gave…
…a week. And in Iran, I terminated the Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal, one of the worst deals ever made, which
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted.
…I said we have to go and stop them from having a nuclear weapon. If they had a nuclear weapon, you wouldn't be very comfortable.…
terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal as some people call it, which was a road to a nuclear weapon for Iran.…
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted.
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Nuclear (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Nuclear (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Nuclear (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Nuclear (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Nuclear (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 28 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | No | 2 |
| May 22, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Nuclear 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 3+ times at 12 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (80%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear (3+ times)” next time?
- 72%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nuclear-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nuclear%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP