Will Donald Trump say “Oil”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oil” at 72 of 111 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (65%), most recently on Jul 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=111, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

66%from settlement history only · n=111counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Oil

Probability
66% · n=111
Settled
72/111 (65%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 47:20In transcript

…we're working with them to produce millions and millions of barrels of oil a week. And in Iran, I terminated the Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 42:04In transcript

…you got to take over a country that's like the best the oil. You know how you find oil in Venezuela? Look at the ground.…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 22:10In transcript

Interest rates are very soon going to be falling just like oil, gas, everything's going to be. We watch what's going to be happening very…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:34:32In transcript

…one state sponsor of terror. As soon as that war is over, oil is going to drop like a rock. And that's the only thing…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 11:15In transcript

…United States Navy has recently escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, and more oil is flowing than…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 18, 2026OilPolymarketNo–
Jul 28, 2026OilKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 27, 2026OilPolymarketYes3
Jul 27, 2026OilKalshiYes3
Jul 24, 2026OilPolymarketYes4
Jul 24, 2026OilKalshiYes4
Jul 24, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jul 23, 2026OilKalshiYes3
Jul 16, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jul 15, 2026OilPolymarketYes11
Jul 14, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Jul 14, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Jul 14, 2026OilKalshiYes9
Jul 13, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Jul 9, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026OilPolymarketYes10
Jul 8, 2026OilKalshiYes10
Jul 7, 2026OilPolymarketYes4
Jul 7, 2026OilKalshiYes4
Jul 6, 2026OilKalshiYes6
Jul 3, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jul 2, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Jul 1, 2026OilPolymarketYes–
Jul 1, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Jun 29, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jun 26, 2026OilKalshiYes2
Jun 25, 2026OilKalshiYes4
Jun 25, 2026OilKalshiYes4
Jun 24, 2026OilKalshiYes13
Jun 24, 2026OilKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 23, 2026OilKalshiYes15
Jun 22, 2026OilKalshiYes8
Jun 20, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026OilPolymarketYes1
Jun 17, 2026OilKalshiYes21
Jun 17, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jun 17, 2026OilKalshiYes7
Jun 16, 2026OilKalshiYes4
Jun 16, 2026OilKalshiYes1
Jun 15, 2026OilPolymarketYes–
Jun 15, 2026OilKalshiYes5
Jun 4, 2026OilKalshiYes6
May 27, 2026OilKalshiYes–
May 22, 2026OilPolymarketNo–
May 22, 2026OilKalshiNo–
May 21, 2026OilKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026OilKalshiNo–
May 11, 2026OilKalshiYes–
May 7, 2026OilKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 5, 2026OilKalshiYes–
May 1, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 30, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 21, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Apr 21, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 17, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 16, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 12, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 8, 2026OilKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 6, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026OilKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Oil”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Oil” at 72 of 111 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (65%), most recently on Jul 27, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Oil” next time?
66%, from settlement history (n=111). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP